Modelo heurístico, para la dinámica de propagación de una enfermedad infecciosa
Keywords:
Epidemic modelling, Agent-Supported modelling, Heuristic modelling, NetLogo
Abstract
This article presents an epidemic model supported by agents and heuristic rules, using the Science of Complexity approach. The model was implemented in the NetLogo programming environment and is available for use. It is verified that the dynamics that emerge from the simulations correspond to a profile of exponential growth in the total number of infected. The proposed model was used to evaluate the performance of two strategies for the containment of the propagation of an infectious disease: a) avoidance of close contacts and, b) detection and timely isolation of the newly infected people. The results of the simula tions show that the best strategy is that of timely detection and isolation.
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References
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- Diekmann, O. and Heesterbeek, J.A.P. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation. John Wiley & Sons, USA, 2000.
- Herrera-Valdez, M. A.; Cruz-Aponte, M. and Castillo-Chavez, C. Multiple outbreaks for the same pandemic: Local transportation and social distancing explain the different waves of AH1N1PDM cases observed in Mexico during 2009. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8 [1], p.p. 21-48, 2009.
- Laguna-S´anchez, G. A. NetLogo heuristicEpiDem Iterated model, GitHub, 2020. github.com/galaguna/ heuristicEpiDem-Iterated
- Mitchell, M. Complexity: A Guided Tour. Oxford University Press, USA, 2009.
- Reich, H. How to tell if we’re beating COVID-19. 2020. MinutePhysics. https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc
- Wilensky, U. NetLogo. http: //ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/.Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 1999.
- Wilensky, U. NetLogo PD N-Person Iterated model. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 2002. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/PDN-PersonIterated.
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Published
2021-03-18
How to Cite
Laguna-Sánchez, G. A., & López-Sauceda, J. (2021). Modelo heurístico, para la dinámica de propagación de una enfermedad infecciosa. Contactos, Revista De Educación En Ciencias E Ingeniería, (119), 45-55. Retrieved from https://contactos.izt.uam.mx/index.php/contactos/article/view/102
Section
Artículos
