Enfoque bioeconómico para el diseño de estrategias de recuperación ante un contexto climático incierto
El caso de la pesquería de abulón azul en México
Abstract
Overfishing is a global issue exacerbated by climate change. In Mexico, the green abalone fishery represents a deteriorated resource, prompting efforts to rebuild it. Certain fishery areas have been closed through a collaborative decision-making process involving fishing communities and authorities as part of the recovery plan. This study evaluated three exploitation levels under future climate scenarios to guide potential fishery reopening in those zones. A bio-economic model was developed, incorporating the effects of sea surface temperature on abalone population dynamics. Results indicate that fishing effort levels targeting the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), based on historical data, could lead to overexploitation under warming scenarios. Conversely, adopting a lower effort level that balances acceptable returns with conservation objectives may support recovery and serve as a resilient strategy in the face of climate change. Accordingly, recovery strategies should be precautionary, account for multiple sources of uncertainty, and remain adaptable to shifts in stock productivity driven by climate variability.
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References
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