Análisis de gestión de riesgo climático, meteorológico y geodinámico en el estado de Puebla, México.

Abstract

This study analyzes natural hazards in two key areas of the state of Puebla: the Puebla metropolitan area and the Popocatepetl volcano. in the first, the arrival time of a primary and secondary seismic wave from the states of Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacan, Jalisco, Oaxaca, and Colima is analyzed, in addition to analyzing the velocity isolines (isokinetic), taking as a reference earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7 degrees according to the National Seismological Service, those that occurred west of Acatlan de Osorio with a magnitude of 7.1 on October 24, 1980, southeast of San Gabriel Chilac with a magnitude of 7.0 on June 15, 1999, and northwest of Chiautla de Tapia with a magnitude of 7.1 on September 19, 2017. For the Popocatépetl volcano area, atmospheric dynamics (wind direction) and types of eruptions that could indicate possible risks to the population are examined.

For both areas, freely available meteorological data was collected and processed using modeling and interpolation software, generating climate maps for different periods of years with Surfer software. The analysis is supported by tools such as Google Earth Pro, GPS Visualizer, and Erupt, to understand its evolution and mitigate risks in the event of a possible eruption. The results are intended to be integrated into risk maps that support disaster planning and prevention in the state of Puebla.